| 单词 | trade cycle |
| 释义 | trade cycle A tendency for alternating periods of upward and downward movements in the aggregate level of output and employment, relative to their long-term trends. These are also known as business cycles. In economic models trade cycles tend to be repetitive in duration and size. In the real world economy, trade cycles have been observed for as far back as statistical records go, but these have been of very varied duration and severity. The horizontal axis shows time; the vertical axis the level of GDP, on a logarithmic scale. ABCD is the ceiling, given by population increase, net investment, and technical progress. EFGHI is the floor, given by population increase, government policy on income support, and autonomous investment minus the maximum feasible rate of induced disinvestment. As shown by FBGCH, the economy fluctuates between the floor and the ceiling. Hitting the ceiling results in a slowdown in actual growth, which leads via the accelerator to a downturn. Hitting the floor leads to a resumption of growth; when the wearing out of capital has gone far enough, induced investment is switched on again and growth speeds up. It is also possible for a downturn to come before the celing is actually reached, or for a recovery to start before the economy hits the floor. |
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