| 单词 | extrapolative expectations |
| 释义 | extrapolative expectations Expectations based on the assumption that recent trends will continue, for some time at least. In an economy which was growing steadily, such expectations would produce correct forecasts. In an economy subject to both stochastic and cyclical fluctuations, forecasts produced by extrapolation will not be completely reliable, but it may be difficult to do any better. To extrapolate it is necessary to decide what span of the past to consider in calculating past trends, and how far into the future to project any forecasts. Extrapolative forecasts will of course miss changes in trends due to major shocks. Most actual forecasting methods contain some element of extrapolation. The resulting expectations may not be right, but major departures come as surprises. |
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