| 单词 | expectations |
| 释义 | expectations What people expect to happen. Some models simply take expectations as exogenous, that is, no analysis is attempted of how they are formed. Static or myopic expectations models assume that people expect the present situation, whatever it is, to continue. Adaptive expectations models assume that what people expect reacts gradually to what they observe. If actual observations are constant or vary randomly around a constant level, adaptive expectations gradually come to be approximately correct; but if the actual has a trend, adaptive expectations lag behind, and are systematically incorrect. Extrapolative expectations assume that observed trends over the past will continue in the future. Model-consistent, or rational expectations assume that people use all available information to avoid making predictable errors in their forecasts. The expectations-augmented Phillips curve relates wage increases to unemployment, taking into account expectations about price inflation. Some expectations tend to be self-fulfilling: for example, if people expect the price of an asset to rise, they will buy or delay selling in anticipation of this, which itself tends to raise the price. In other cases expectations tend to be self-frustrating: for example, if farmers who anticipate higher prices grow more of a crop, this tends to limit any rise in price. Expectations cannot be directly observed, but have to be inferred from people's actions. Even if organizations announce their plans, such announcements are usually intended to influence other people's decisions, so cannot be taken at face value. See also: adaptive expectations, elasticity of expectations, exogenous expectations, extrapolative expectations, rational expectations, and self-fulfilling expectations |
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