| 单词 | hypothesis testing |
| 释义 | hypothesis testing Testing whether there are statistical grounds for disbelieving any statement. Economic data are based on records, which may be inaccurate, and on samples, which may not be truly representative. Statistical testing can never prove any statement based on these data to be true, only that there is no reason to believe that it is not. Hypothesis testing involves avoiding two types of error: accepting statements when there is good reason to doubt them, and rejecting them when there is in fact no good reason to do so. The modus operandi of hypothesis testing is to ask, given the apparent variance of the data, what is the probability of having obtained any given result purely through sampling error? The more unlikely any result is to have arisen from sampling error, the less reason there is to disbelieve it. Making any test more or less stringent increases the probability of one form of error and decreases the chances of the other. What test is best depends on the seriousness of the consequences of being wrong. Lenders, for example, risk a small loss of possible profit if they reject an honest and competent borrower, and total loss of their money if they accept a dishonest or incompetent one. |
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