| 单词 | trend |
| 释义 | trend A long-term growth path of an economic variable, around which there may be short-term fluctuations. Trends may be calculated by various methods. One of the simplest is to regress the variable on time using ordinary least squares. If it is believed that there is a constant proportional long-run growth rate, the trend is found by regressing the logarithm of the variable on time. Alternatively, a curve can be fitted to the peaks or troughs of successive cycles. This is statistically less satisfactory, as there are fewer peaks and troughs than the observations for all available periods, and the apparent peaks and troughs themselves may result from freak events or errors in data collection. forecasting often works by projecting trends into the future: this is a risky procedure, as there is no natural law which prevents trends in economic variables such as income or prices from changing. The horizontal axis shows time; the vertical axis shows Y = GDP, on a logarithmic scale. The trend is given by ln(Yt) = α + βt, where α and β are found by regressing ln(Yt ) on t. |
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