单词 | serial correlation |
释义 | serial correlation The situation when the value of a stochastic time-series variable is not independent of its value in previous periods. If x(t) is a time-series variable, observed at times 1, 2…t, and y(t) is its trend value at time t, define z(t) = x(t) - y(t). There is zero serial correlation if the expected value E[z(t). z(t - 1)] = 0. If E[z(t). z(t - 1)] > 0 there is positive serial correlation; if E[z(t). z(t - 1)] < 0 there is negative serial correlation. Many economic variables such as the rate of inflation or the unemployment rate show strong positive serial correlation. |
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