| 单词 | Lucas critique |
| 释义 | Lucas critique The argument that it is dangerous to attempt to predict the effects of major policy changes by using econometric models of the economy based on data recorded when different policies were in place. Individuals and firms are assumed to choose their actions in the light of existing policies: for example, choice of hours of work takes account of current income tax policy. If there is a major policy change, this changes the incentives in the system, and will change people's conduct. It cannot be assumed that the effects of a major policy change can be predicted just by changing particular parameters in a few fitted equations. The general implication of this critique is that the effects of policy changes are hard to forecast: they can be learned by experience, but only when it is too late to alter them. |
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