| 单词 | risk |
| 释义 | risk The fact that the results of any action are not certain, but may take more than one value. Risk is usually used to describe the form of uncertainty where, while the actual outcome of an action is not known, it is expected that it will be determined as the result of a random drawing from a set of possible outcomes whose distribution is known. Where this information is supposed to come from is usually not discussed. The variance of possible outcomes is frequently used as a measure of risk, but this should not be taken for granted. For some distributions of possible outcomes and some utility functions variance is exactly right as a measure of risk: this applies if the utility function is quadratic, or if the outcomes are normally distributed. For other utility functions and distributions, variance is only an approximate measure of risk, and indeed is not always defined. Risk-neutrality means that utility is a linear function of the outcome: in this case only the mean matters and its distribution is irrelevant. Risk-aversion means that marginal utility is decreasing in outcomes, so that of any two projects with equal mean outcomes, that with the lower dispersion will be preferred. A risk-free asset is one with zero dispersion of outcomes; such assets are hard to find. With zero inflation, money is a risk-free asset, but with inflation at an uncertain rate, the real value of money can vary so that in real terms money is not risk-free. With inflation, an indexed bond without default risk can be regarded as risk-free. In a foreign currency loan, risk can be decomposed into two elements: default risk, because the borrower may not pay; and currency risk, because even if the borrower does pay, under flexible exchange rates the home currency value of a given foreign currency payment is uncertain. See also: counter-party credit risk, currency risk, downside risk, exposure to risk, idiosyncratic risk, market risk, non-systematic risk, independent risks, settlement risk, and systematic risk |
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